Implementation of forecasting methods to determine teaching and learning model policies during a pandemic in border areas

Irfan Wahyu Prananto, (Scopus ID: 57220579532) Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Tubagus Pamungkas, Universitas Riau Kepulauan, Indonesia
Riyan Hidayat, Faculty of Educational Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia, Malaysia

Abstract


Indonesia is an archipelagic country with more than seventeen thousand islands, both in the interior and border areas. The border area is directly or indirectly a barrier to other countries. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview for readers to conduct forecasting method research. This study aims to describe the profile of the spread of the virus and provide input on education policies in border areas for forecasting. This research may need to be more thematically up-to-date and slow in publication. Still, researchers believe this is useful for policymakers to determine policies from reading existing patterns using equations in forecasting methods. Especially in the era of disruption, which is full of uncertainty, knowledge like this is needed to make predictions. In this study, the characterization is divided into gender, age, occupation, and interaction. The results showed that the gender of COVID-19 patients in the border areas had the same proportion of both men and women, the age range of twenty to forty-eight years had a greater probability of being affected, employees/private sector were more dominant to be involved, groups and the most prevalent cause of transmission of COVID-19 is family interaction. In addition, using Brown's double smoothing exponential method shows that predictions for July, August, and November for suspects and patients with COVID-19 will increase. Thus, the recommendation from this research for the Education Office as a policy maker in border areas is that school learning activities should be postponed until conditions are feasible. 


Implementasi metode peramalan guna menentukan kebijakan model belajar mengajar saat pandemic di daerah perbatasan

Indonesia merupakan negara kepulauan yang terdiri lebih dari tujuh belas ribu pulau, baik yang berada di pedalaman maupun di daerah perbatasan. Daerah perbatasan secara langsung atau tidak langsung menjadi pembatas dengan negara lain. Tujuan penelitian ini secara umum memberikan gambaran kepada para pembaca untuk melakukan sebuah penelitian metode peramalan. Secara kusus, dalam penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menggambarkan profil sebaran virus, dan memberikan masukan kebijakan pendidikan di daerah perbatasan atas peramalan yang dilakukan. Penelitian ini mungkin tidak up to date secara tema dan lambat dalam publikasi, namun peneliti berkeyakinan ini berguna bagi pengambil kebijakan untuk menentukan kebijakan dari membaca pola-pola yang ada menggunakan persamaan dalam metode peramalan. Apalagi di era disrupsi yang penuh dengan ketidak pastian, pengetahuan seperti ini sangat diperlukan untuk memprediksi. Dalam penelitian ini, karakterisasi dibagi menjadi empat yaitu jenis kelamin, usia, pekerjaan, dan interaksi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa jenis kelamin pada pasien COVID-19 di daerah perbatasan memiliki proporsi yang sama baik laki-laki maupun perempuan, rentang usia dua puluh sampai empat puluh delapan tahun memiliki kemungkinan lebih besar untuk terkena, pegawai/swasta lebih dominan untuk terkena, kelompok lain dan juga penyebab paling dominan penularan COVID -19 adalah interaksi keluarga. Selain itu dengan menggunakan metode double smoothing exponential Brown menunjukkan bahwa prediksi Juli, Agustus hingga November kondisi suspek dan pasien COVID -19 akan naik. Dengan demikian, rekomendasi dari penelitian ini  untuk Dinas Pendidikan sebagai pengambil kebijakan di daerah perbatasan adalah kegiatan belajar di sekolah sebaiknya ditunda hingga keadaan sudah bisa dikatakan layak.


Keywords


forecasting methods; Covid-19; education policy; teaching and learning activities

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.21831/jpipfip.v16i1.52573

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