Rupiah Exchange Rate Fluctuations in The US Dollar, Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Fisher Effect Theory Testing

Abstract

Abstract: Rupiah Exchange Rate Fluctuations in The US Dollar, Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Fisher Effect Theory Testing.  To test the accuracy of the power purchasing parity theory and the international fisher effect theory on fluctuations in the Rupiah exchange rate against the United States Dollar. The goal of this study is to examine if the power purchasing parity theory and the international fisher effect theory are valid when it comes to Rupiah-US Dollar exchange rate movements. The purpose of this research is to figure out the rate of inflation, interest rate, and movement of the rupiah against the US dollar. This research examined historical data on the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, interest rates, and inflation rates in Indonesia and the United States from January 2015 through December 2020. In this research, multiple linear regression analysis was used. Research proved that the theory of power purchasing parity applies to changes in the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate on the US dollar. The international fisher effect does not apply to changes in the Indonesian Rupiah currency rate against the US dollar, which proves the existence of theoretical deviations that result in the invalidity of this theory.

Keywords: purchasing power parity, international fisher effect, exchange rate

Abstrak: Fluktuasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah dalam Dollar US, Pengujian Teori Paritas Daya Beli dan Teori Fisher Efek. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji keakuratan volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS dalam teori paritas daya beli (PPP) dan teori dampak fisher internasional. Variabel dalam penelitian ini adalah inflasi, suku bunga, dan pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah data historis nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat dan tingkat suku bunga Indonesia dan Amerika Serikat serta tingkat inflasi dari bulan Januari 2015 sampai dengan Desember 2020. Metode dalam penelitian adalah: Analisis regresi linier berganda. Penelitian membuktikan bahwa teori power purchasing parity berlaku pada perubahan kurs mata uang Rupiah Indonesia pada Dollar Amerika Serikat.  Teori internasional fisher effect tidak berlaku berlaku pada perubahan kurs mata uang Rupiah Indonesia pada Dollar Amerika Serikat, yang membuktikan adanya penyimpangan teori yang mengakibatkan tidak berlakunya teori ini.

Kata kunci: paritas daya beli, internasional efek fisher, perubahan kurs