Kajian dan prediksi perubahan Tutupan Lahan menggunakan Cellular Automata-Markov Chain di Kota Unaaha

Septianto Aldiansyah; Supriatna Supriatna

doi:10.21831/gm.v22i1.52278

Kajian dan prediksi perubahan Tutupan Lahan menggunakan Cellular Automata-Markov Chain di Kota Unaaha

Septianto Aldiansyah, Departemen Geografi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia, Indonesia
Supriatna Supriatna, Departemen Geografi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia, Indonesia

10.21831/gm.v22i1.52278

Abstract

Kota Unaaha memiliki letak yang strategis karena berada di jalan lintas provinsi, pusat kegiatan ekonomi, hingga industri. Pertumbuhan ekonomi cukup pesat dibanding wilayah lain di Kabupaten Konawe sehingga dapat menyebabkan konversi lahan dimasa depan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perubahan tutupan lahan di Kota Unaaha dari tahun 2006-2021 dan memprediksi tutupan lahan pada tahun 2036. Metode yang diterapkan pada penelitian ini adalah Cellular Automata Markov Chain untuk memprediksi perubahan tutupan lahan tahun 2036. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa jenis tutupan lahan permukiman dan daerah pertanian terus meningkat, sedangkan perairan, lahan terbuka dan daerah bervegetasi mengalami penurunan. Pada tahun 2036, kawasan permukiman dan pertanian akan bertambah masing-masing hingga seluas 1.279,42 ha dan 1074,14. Perubahan ini sejalan dengan rencana tata ruang Kota Unaaha sebagai Kota Agropolitan khususnya pada tutupan lahan daerah pertanian, namun cenderung menyimpang pada kawasan permukiman. Perencanaan tata ruang perlu untuk ditindaklanjuti untuk agar kota dapat lebih berkelanjutan di masa depan.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.21831/gm.v22i1.52278